Saturday, January 14, 2012

Where are the rest of the 85,000 Raelians??

The International Raelian Movement claims a 85,000-strong membership worldwide as of 5 September 2011. It will be shown below how actual membership numbers are deliberately inflated for PR purposes. Actual membership numbers from Raelian baptisms are far below reported totals.

Here I've combined "total membership" data from wikipedia (1973-2006) and raelpress (2004-2011; source data below). I ran a regular trend line and a 6 order polynomial regression (black line). I also connected the dots of the most likely high and low estimates to come up with an "limit" line (red line).

Analysis shows that the polynomial curve is biased towards horizontal trends (IRM's reporting of ballpark numbers instead of actual ones makes it look like there's no growth over long periods). Most growth is observed in the late 90s and in very recent years.

In the previous slide I delimited the reasonable boundaries of IRM membership estimates. From the upper limit, I selected 3 points spanning 2001-2006 during which IRM Baptism (TCP) numbers were also released in the Structure-only publication "White Knights" (2003-2004). We can compare the membership figures announced with reported baptisms to check for any discrepancies.

According to IRM Totals published, the average growth rate was 2,000 new Raelians over 5 years (2001-2006). Data was retrieved from wikipedia and the Rael Press site.

But, IRM Baptism records show an average growth of only 799 new Raelians from baptisms (see below).

This establishes a sound basis to reject the Total numbers IRM publishes of Raelians worldwide as being accurate.

Graph showing new Raelian numbers during 2003-2004 that appeared in Structure-only "White Knites"... proves that the yearly rate is well below 2,250 new members in order to have 85,000 Raelians in the 38 years of its operation as it has been claimed by the International Raelian Movement.

Even if the incomplete data point of April 2004 is estimated to be 400, the baptism rate = 229 per day* or 917 per year.

With the figures available, the baptism rate = 199 per day or 799 per year.

[* there are 4 baptism days in a year]

A google video shows only 168 new Raelians on the 1st Sunday of April 2005.

Raelians have baptisms (TCP) 4 times a year at 3pm in the afternoon. The 1st Sunday of April usually draws in the most new converts because it always falls on a holiday... the other days may or may not be a convenient day. (compare previous baptism figures)

Considering the above, we can assume that 168 was the highest number of new recruits on one single day that year... multiply that by 4 and we get the maximum expected number of new Raelians (168 x 4 = 672). This figure is not enough to arrive at 85,000 since 1973.

Data from IRM's newsletter, Contact 332 (April 2007)... total worldwide Raelian baptisms (TCP) equaled 285. Therefore, maximum expected TCPs for 2007 = (285 x 4) = 1,140. This figure still falls short of the required 2,250 new Raelians per year to arrive at 85,000 over 38 years.

As of 2005, there were only 2,584 "Structure Members" in the International Raelian Movement... there are no records of "simple Raelians" but everyone else is grouped into "prospects"... they include people who have had their TCPs or just gone to a Raelian conference or gathering and left their names.

If Raelians don't join the Structures, the official stance is "they aren't being consistent with the Messages"... in other words, they're slackers. If there are a total of 85,000 Raelians, then at least 97% of all Raelians are slackers. Aren't they supposed to be the "brain of humanity"?

Here are the stats of Raelian "likers" and "friends" of various Raelian sites on the web as of today:

Where are the rest of the space-age Raelians? No Internet?? LOL

Check out: 70,000 plus Raelians Mobilized to help Negar Azizmoradi stay alive! - actually only 257 Raelians

Updates: As of 2010, there were only 2,221 IRM members and 14,192 TCPs (Raelian baptisms):

In Contact #397, Rael says: "And one more time, Raelians are 100 % free to say or think whatever they wish, but not structure members, and not on my private page as I accept as Facebook "friends" only structure members."

He has 4,907 "friends" as of November 2017... I can guarantee you not all are Structure (IRM) members. What a liar! 🤣🤣🤣

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