The following are Raelian facts from Rael's e-book, Intelligent Design:
(1) Build embassy and gather the largest amount of people possible and make them think intensely about the Elohim and hope for their official arrival (p. 102).
(2) When there are enough of these people, who without any religious mysticism acknowledge and respect the Elohim as their scientific creators, the Elohim will come openly and give their scientific knowledge to all peoples of the Earth (p. 102).
(3) But the above would only happen if war-like temperaments are reduced to total powerlessness in the whole world (p. 103).
(3) There is a 99% chance Humanity will self-destruct in a nuclear cataclysm (p. 291, 306).
(4) The Elohim will intervene to and keep this from happening until there are about 144,000 people who believe in Rael and those "good" people ignorant of Rael's existence (this will include, 8400 people already recreated) (p. 298) [1].
(5) Rael hopes self-destruction will not happen and estimates the year of the Elohim's official arrival to be sometime before 2035. This prediction used to be set for 2015, then later 2020 and then again 2025.
From the above, we can assume:
(1) If the world is going to self-destruct as predicted, the Elohim will only delay it until the number of Raelians reach close to 135,600 people (plus the 8,400 already recreated). Today, Rael claims a 80,000 strong membership [2]. Rael tells his followers to be ready to drop everything when he gets a telepathic message from Yahweh indicating the 144,000 people are all sorted. These 135,000 get beamed up and the rest of Humanity burns in literal hell. Remember, Yahweh predicts a 99% chance of this. : O
(2) When the membership grows beyond that figure of 135,600 and there's no self-destruction, we can then assume the threat of self-destruction dissipated well before this point and that we've entered the Golden Age. This is because if the total number of "worthy people" exceeds 144,000, then it means that the Elohim DID NOT have to "delay our imminent self-destruction". With the threat of self-destruction out of the way, the Elohim would be ready to come down openly, provided of course, the Embassy is built. : D .... but, how many exactly is "the largest amount of people possible" and "enough" is not clear. Given the above, we can assume that number is "at least 144,000" people.
Rael boasts a 80,000 strong membership base for the Raelian Movement. 10 years ago the figure was about 55,000. Using "official" figures published in Wikipedia, Raelian membership number is estimated to reach 144,000 people by 2031 (using moving average to forecast - graph from 1975~2006 not to scale). Available data exhibits a linear trend instead of an exponential one that one would expect. [3]
Click for larger pic.
So here's all the possible end game scenarios:
1) End of the World (Self-destruction) 99% chance
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1a) Embassy Built and Raelian count Enough (at least 144,000) = Elohim take *only* 144,000
1b) Embassy Built and Raelian count NOT enough = Elohim delay cataclysm and then take 144,000
1c) Embassy NOT built and Raelian count Enough (at least 144,000) = Elohim take *only*144,000
1d) Embassy NOT built and Raelian count NOT enough = Elohim delay cataclysm and then take 144,000
2) The Arrival (No self-destruction) 1% chance
--------------------------
2a) Embassy Built and Raelian count Enough (at least 144,000, but exactly how many IS "enough"?) = Elohim come down
2b) Embassy Built and Raelian count NOT enough = Elohim wait and then come down
2c) Embassy NOT built and Raelian count Enough (at least 144,000) = Elohim wait and then come down
2d) Embassy NOT built and Raelian count NOT enough = Elohim wait then come down
Whether our humanity is to self-destruct or enter into a Golden Age, thus hinges on the number of Raelian adepts. When the point reaches to "enough" Raelians, Rael will have to explain to his followers why the Elohim aren't coming down to their Embassy... he will probably either say there's not enough people wishing the Elohim's return or that humanity's self-destruction has begun and it'll be less painful to drink the Kool-Aid than to die in a nuclear cataclysm, assuring them of course that the still invisible Elohim will have collected their DNA for recreation at the moment of their deaths. : /
And, did I mention Rael will turn 89 in 2035... looks like a great exit strategy! : P
Advocatus Diaboli
[1] It should be noted that in Rael's first book, he wrote that if humanity poses a threat to the Elohim because of its aggressiveness, the Elohim would intervene and destroy us (p. 103, 105, 106). At that time Rael's organization was called MADECH (the movement for welcoming the Elohim, creators of humanity) which essentially made it an alien invasion doomsday cult until two years later when Rael published his second book "correcting" that the Elohim wouldn't intervene in our destruction since we're very likely to self-destruct.
[2] As of September 2011, the IRM has claimed a 85,000-strong following http://www.raelpress.org/news.php?item.248.1
[3] Actual membership figures have been disputed and have been estimated to be no more than only 3,000 at present. Internal IRM documents from 2005 show only 2,584 members of IRM referred to as "Structure members". An exclusive newsletter White Knights #1 reported worldwide Raelian baptism to total 887. Assuming even 1,000 baptisms per year since 1974 until now (37 years), we would still get only 37,000 Raelians (whether or not they are IRM Structure members) http://raelian-truth.blogspot.jp/2012/01/where-are-rest-of-85000-raelians.html
New video by Rael explains how there's nothing to fear about 2012.
New video by Rael explains how there's nothing to fear about 2012.
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